The question on everyone’s mind lately is: “Are house prices falling in Wales?” With the property market continuing to attract attention amid economic changes and global uncertainties, it’s essential to take a closer look at the numbers. According to the latest UK House Price Index (HPI) data for September 2025, house prices in Wales are not falling. Instead, they’ve shown a 2.7% annual increase, bringing the average property price to £209,000 despite a slight -0.8% dip in monthly prices.
Latest UK HPI Data: What Do the Numbers Say?
The September 2025 UK House Price Index (HPI) data paints a complex yet optimistic picture for Wales. While there has been a slight monthly dip of -0.8%, the annual growth rate has been positive at 2.7%. This suggests that the Welsh property market remains stable and continues to attract attention, even as other parts of the UK experience slower growth.
Key Figures at a Glance:
- Average house price in Wales (Sep 2025): £209,000
- Annual growth rate: +2.7% (up from +1.8% in August 2025)
- Monthly change: -0.8% (non-seasonally adjusted), -0.6% (seasonally adjusted)
- Comparison with the UK average: Wales lags slightly behind the UK-wide annual growth rate of 2.6%.
New Builds vs Resales:
- New builds: The average price for new builds in Wales hit a remarkable £351,373 in July 2025, representing a 16.0% annual growth.
- Resales: Existing homes saw a more modest increase, with prices averaging £206,568, up 1.6% year-on-year.
These numbers highlight a growing divide between the new-build and resale markets, with new developments commanding significantly higher premiums.
Monthly and Annual Trends
Looking back to January 2025, the Welsh property market experienced a 6.0% year-on-year surge, bringing the average house price to £210,000. This sharp rise was partly due to base effects from prior dips in 2024. However, seasonal fluctuations, like the typical softening in September, are expected and do not necessarily signal a long-term decline.
Visualizing Trends
To better understand the trajectory of Welsh house prices, let’s examine a table of annual price changes from 2022 to 2025:
Year Average Price (£)Annual Growth (%)Notes
2022 (Sep) £190,000 +4.2% Post-COVID recovery
2023 (Sep) £195,000 +2.6% Moderate growth
2024 (Sep) £203,500 +4.4% Inflationary pressures
2025 (Sep) £209,000 +2.7% Resilience despite dips
Regional Breakdown: Where Are Prices Holding or Dropping?
The Welsh property market is far from uniform, with notable variations in house price trends across regions. While urban hotspots like Cardiff and Wrexham are thriving, rural areas such as Ceredigion have experienced slight declines.
Regional House Price Trends (2025)
Local Authority Average Price (£)Annual Change (%)Key Insights
Cardiff £273,680 +5.8% Strong demand in urban areas
Caerphilly £194,002 +8.1% Affordable housing hotspot
Ceredigion £229,785 -4.9% Rural areas facing challenges
Wrexham £209,224 +8.6% Border region growth
Wales Avg £209,000 +2.7%
Analysis of Regional Trends:
- Urban vs Rural Divide:
- Urban areas like Cardiff and Wrexham have benefitted from strong demand, fueled by job opportunities and infrastructure investments. On the other hand, rural regions such as Ceredigion have faced price dips due to fewer transactions and less demand.
- Affordable Hotspots:
- Areas like Caerphilly are increasingly attractive to first-time buyers and middle-income families because they are more affordable than Cardiff.
- New Build Premiums:
- Across Wales, new builds command a significant Premium, with prices averaging over £374,000 in some areas, reflecting high demand for energy-efficient homes.
Key Trends Driving the Welsh Property Market
Several factors are influencing house prices in Wales. Understanding these trends can provide valuable insights for buyers, sellers, and investors.
Base Effects from Previous Declines
One of the reasons for the sharp 6.0% growth in January 2025 is the rebound from lower prices in early 2024. This phenomenon, known as the base effect, skews annual growth figures but indicates market recovery.
Seasonal Dips
The -0.8% dip in September 2025 aligns with typical seasonal trends, as the housing market slows after the summer peak. This dip is not unusual and doesn’t suggest a broader downturn.
Rising Transaction Volumes
One positive sign is the 15.8% year-on-year increase in transactions. A growing number of sales indicates confidence in the market, as both buyers and sellers are willing to engage.
Interest Rates and Affordability
While interest rates remain a concern, the average house price in Wales (£210,000) is still more affordable than the UK average. This affordability continues to attract buyers, particularly in regions offering value for money.
Forecasts: Will House Prices Fall in Wales in 2026?
Looking ahead, the outlook for the Welsh housing market remains cautiously optimistic. Expert forecasts suggest modest growth of 2-4% in 2026, assuming economic stability.
Optimistic Scenario:
- Continued rise in transaction volumes.
- Growth in urban hotspots like Cardiff and Wrexham.
- Increased demand for new builds, particularly energy-efficient homes.
Pessimistic Scenario:
- Rural areas like Ceredigion may see further declines due to weaker demand.
- High-interest rates and inflation could dampen overall growth.
Expert Insights:
According to the ONS long-term index, the Welsh housing market has shown consistent resilience. The Jan 2023 index value of 100 rose to 103.7 by September 2025, reflecting steady growth.
Implications for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
For Buyers:
If you’re looking to enter the market, now is a good time to secure a property before prices rise further. Focus on regions like Caerphilly or Rhondda, which offer affordability and strong growth potential.
For Sellers:
Price your property competitively, especially in regions experiencing slower growth. Use tools like the UK HPI interactive map to gauge local trends.
For Investors:
New builds continue to outperform, offering higher returns and strong tenant demand. Consider investing in areas with growing infrastructure and employment opportunities.
Are House Prices Falling in Wales FAQ
What is the latest average house price in Wales?
The average house price in Wales was £209,000 as of September 2025, according to the UK HPI.
Are house prices falling in Wales?
No, house prices in Wales have risen by 2.7% annually, although there was a small -0.8% monthly dip.
Which areas in Wales are seeing the most growth?
Regions like Wrexham (+8.6%) and Caerphilly (+8.1%) have shown the strongest annual growth.
Is it a good time to buy property in Wales?
Yes, with modest growth and affordable prices compared to the UK average, now is a favorable time to buy.
